A proposition suggests that the subjective probability of an event is assessed based on how readily instances of that event come to mind. The more easily examples are recalled, the higher the perceived likelihood of that event occurring. For instance, if someone easily recalls news stories about airplane crashes, they might overestimate the actual probability of being involved in one themselves.
This cognitive shortcut is beneficial because it allows for rapid decision-making based on past experiences and readily available information. It provided a framework for understanding how individuals assess risks and make judgments. This theory played a role in the development of heuristics and biases research, highlighting how mental shortcuts can lead to systematic errors in reasoning.