A perspective within psychological thought posits that individuals estimate the likelihood of events based on the ease with which they can recall similar instances. This viewpoint suggests that repeated occurrences or readily available memories significantly influence assessments of probability. For example, if one easily remembers news reports about airplane crashes, one might overestimate the likelihood of such an event occurring to them personally, despite statistical evidence to the contrary.
This theoretical approach offers insights into biases in judgment and decision-making. It highlights how availability and memorability can outweigh objective data in shaping perceptions of risk and likelihood. Historically, this concept has contributed to a better understanding of cognitive heuristics and their impact on human behavior, particularly in areas such as risk assessment, consumer behavior, and social cognition.